💰 Is It Worth Playing the Points Game in 2025?

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Every time you hear about another airline award chart disappearing or a hotel program devaluation, it’s fair to ask: is the points game even worth it anymore? Most of the news makes it sound like things are only getting worse, but I still believe we’re living in the golden age of credit card points and miles.

Why? Because while redemptions have gotten more expensive, you can now earn points way faster than ever before. Cards that once gave 1x or 2x now give 4x or 5x, and welcome bonuses of 100,000+ points are more common than ever. It’s clear the earning side of the game has never been better.

📊 The Different Types of Points

Not all points are created equal, and knowing the differences matters.

• Airline & Hotel Points: These kinds of points are what most people are familiar with. They’re great for flights and stays, but they’re not very portable. You usually can’t transfer airline miles to friends or family (though you can book for them), and hotel points vary widely in value.

• Transferable Points: My favorite type of points! You can transfer to airlines or hotels, redeem in portals (often at 1¢/point), or sometimes cash out. This optionality makes them more valuable than single-airline or hotel points, and frequent transfer bonuses make them even better. 

• Fake Points: Some programs (like Bank of America) call them “points,” but really they’re just cash-back in disguise. If you can’t transfer them to airlines or hotels, I put them in the “fake” bucket.

🔢 How to Calculate Your Points

There are two big reasons to calculate point values. First, it helps you compare rewards: 200k Hilton points aren’t as valuable as 100k transferable points, and 3x Hilton points might underperform a 2x Venture card once you do the math. Second, it helps you decide if the points game beats cash back. If your points are worth 2¢ each, a 2x card earns an effective 4%, however, if they’re only worth 1¢, that same card is really just giving you 2%.

Here’s how I think about it:

• Floor Value: For transferable points, the floor is ~1¢ since you can always redeem them in a portal or for a statement credit. Airline miles often hover near 1¢ thanks to dynamic pricing, while most hotel points (excluding Hyatt) are closer to 0.5¢.

• Expert Valuations: The Points Guy currently values Amex points at 2¢, Capital One at 1.85¢, Delta SkyMiles at 1.2¢, and JetBlue at 1.45¢. One Mile at a Time is more conservative, putting transferable points at 1.7¢ and many hotel programs below 0.7¢, with Hyatt and Accor being the big exceptions. Finally, the Frequent Miler publishes “reasonable redemption values,” which are often a bit lower and reflect what’s achievable for the average traveler.

• Data-Driven Valuations: Tools like the Points Path Chrome extension and AwardWallet analyze real redemption data. Points Path compares cash vs. points across thousands of flights, while AwardWallet tracks what members actually book. The data confirms what most of us know: premium cabins and long-haul flights give the best value, while domestic economy or programs like Delta, JetBlue, and Southwest rarely deliver outsized redemptions. For hotels, tools like Gondola (get $50 here if you want to check it out) show Hyatt consistently leading the pack, with luxury properties across chains (Conrad, St. Regis, Ritz, etc.) delivering better value than standard properties.

⚠️ Mistakes to Avoid When Valuing Points

Calculating the value of your points isn’t just dividing the cash price by the points cost. There are a few common mistakes I see all the time.

1. Ignoring Taxes and Fees: A $150 flight for 10,000 points looks like 1.5¢/point, but once you subtract taxes (sometimes hundreds on international or premium cabins), the real value is lower.

2. Overestimating Value with Unrealistic Comparisons: Don’t assume your points are worth 6¢ just because you booked a $3,000 business class ticket for 50k miles. If you’d never pay $3,000 cash, you’re overvaluing them. Always compare against a realistic cash option.

3. Forgetting Points Earned on Paid Travel: On cash bookings, you earn airline miles, hotel points, and elite credits (often worth 10–20% of the ticket). On awards, you don’t. So a 10k-point redemption that looks like 1.5¢/point could really be closer to 1.2¢ when you account for this.

4. Not Factoring in Flexibility: Points often come with more generous cancellation policies than cash. If you cancel a $3,000 Lufthansa cash ticket, you’re stuck with a credit; canceling an award often just gives you your points back. That flexibility adds real value.

As a rule of thumb: subtract taxes, compare to a realistic round-trip fare, and shave another 10–20% for the missed earnings.

💵 How to Decide Between Points and Cash Back

This is where things get interesting. Points can deliver outsized redemptions, but cash back often sets a ceiling on their value since you can literally use cash to buy points during sales.

For example, if you redeemed 120k Hilton points for a $1,500 room, that’s ~1.25¢/point. But if you had $1,500 from a 3% cash back card, you could buy those 120k points when Hilton sells them for 0.5¢/point and still have $900 left over. That’s why I rarely value Hilton points above ~0.5¢.

So, when does cash back win?

• Amazon: The 5% back on the Amazon Prime Visa Card beats any points option.

• Travel & Streaming (non-flight/hotel): U.S. Bank Business Altitude™ Connect gives 4% vs. 3x points on most cards. Unless your points are worth 1.33¢+, cash back wins here.

• Everything Else: Most points cards earn 2x, and many cash back cards give 2%. If your points are worth over 1¢, you come out ahead. But with cards like:

  • Bank of America® Premium Rewards®: 2.625% back with $100k in assets (points need to be worth >1.3¢).
  • U.S. Bank Smartly™ Visa: 2.5% back with a $10k deposit requirement (points need to be worth >1.25¢).
  • Robinhood Gold Card: 3% back (points need to be worth >1.5¢).

🎯 My Point Valuation Framework

Here’s how I personally value points in 2025.

• Transferable Points: ~1.7¢ each. They’re flexible, often boosted by transfer bonuses, but I cap them at 2¢ since you can usually buy airline miles for less.

• Airline Miles: Generally 1.1–1.5¢ baseline, with premium cabin redemptions much higher. I cap most at 2¢, except programs like Lifemiles that constantly sell points for ~1.3¢.

• Hotel Points: Based on sales: Hilton/IHG at 0.5¢, Choice at 0.62¢, Marriott at 0.89¢, Hyatt at ~2¢. Hyatt consistently delivers the most value, while others often struggle to break 1¢.

I wouldn’t buy points speculatively, but these caps help me decide if earning points or cash back makes more sense. Also, to make things easier, I built a Credit Card Optimizer Tool where you can plug in your own values and spending, and it tells you which card wins.

Finally, ask yourself: Would I actually buy these points at the price I say they’re worth? If not, your personal valuation is probably too high.

At the end of the day, there’s no one-size-fits-all answer. For me, the points game is absolutely still worth playing. If you love premium travel and are willing to put in the work, points can deliver incredible value, but if you just want simple, flexible rewards, cashback may win. The key is knowing your own values and using a consistent framework to make smarter decisions.